Ethanol post-holidayMarketPriceGridWhat's driving this rapid surge and causing such a stir in the market?
| Region | Pre-holiday Price (CNY/ton) | Post-holiday Price (CNY/Ton) | Price Spread (CNY/ton) |
| Jilin Grade Ethanol | 5900-5950 | 5950-6000 | +50/+50 |
| Heilongjiang Region Standard Ethanol | 5800-5850 | 5950-6100 | +150/+250 |
| SPE-grade ethanol for Northern Jiangsu region | 6300-6350 | 6400-6500 | +100/+150 |
| Premium Ethanol (Henan Region) | 6100-6150 | 6450-6600 | +350/+450 |
| Industrial-grade ethanol, Shandong region | 6300-6300 | 6450-6500 | +150/+200 |
| Guangxi Region Ethanol Grading | 6300-6550 | 6500-6600 | +200/+50 |
As shown in the table above (prices as of 10/14), domestic ethanol prices have risen significantly after the holiday, with particularly sharp increases in Henan. Key factors driving this surge include: 1 and the Xinxiang region.EnterpriseProduction halted due to environmental regulations, leading to reduced supply. 2: Sichuan Hongzhan boiler issues caused a full shutdown of the Baijiu facility.Order QuantityCentralized procurement in Henan region. 3 Notable restocking after the holiday. 4 High raw material corn prices.SupplierHoldbacks in sales have driven companies to repeatedly raise their quoted prices. The main reasons for the price hike in Northeast China include high raw material costs, a large volume of orders executed by major producers ahead of schedule, post-holiday restocking activities, and low-price holdbacks by smaller mills. Following the price surge in the Northeast, delivered prices to East China also rose. East China cassava processors are facing elevated raw material costs from earlier periods and are currently operating at reduced capacity.LossStatus: Cassava production rates are low; we are procuring more supplies from Northeast China and other regions.SalesUnder the pressure of price increases in Northeast China and high freight rates, prices in East China have risen significantly.
Status of Domestic Units
| Company Name | Device Status |
| Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huinan | 9/29 material feeding |
| Heilongjiang Wanli Runda | Fuel: Online | Edible: Offline |
| Heilongjiang Daqing Borun | 9 23 shutdown until after the holiday for production |
| Jilin BoDa | Phase 2 unit instability led to reduced output. |
| Jilin Fuel | Waterless Stop Production Full-line Production Fuel |
| Tongliao, Inner Mongolia | Post-holiday production |
| Chengde Mountain Resort in Hebei | Shut down until late month |
| Jiangsu Lianhai | Shut down device |
| Lumite | Waterless Device Production |
| Suqian Longjiang | Waterless Device Production |
| Sichuan Hongzhan | Device stopped for approximately 16 days |
| Emerging Biotech | Facilities will resume operation on 10/13 following holiday shutdown. |
Data Source: Shandong Longzhong Information
Post-holiday supply has increased, but current data shows most companies have little to no inventory and are fulfilling orders.
In the fuel ethanol sector,节后，traders reported that fuel ethanol prices delivered to Shandong refineries decreased by approximately 200 yuan/ton. Market rumors indicate that this price adjustment was primarily driven by traders'...MergeSameRenew NowExitCargoDownstream operations, however, as ethanol prices rise and production shifts, companies have raised their quotes while traders' offers have also increased. Currently, most fuel ethanol output is directed to major refineries, with a portion flowing to local refineries.
Longzhong Information believesShortPeriodThe domestic ethanol market will remainContinueSaveHolding at high levels with a sustained rise to new highs is unlikely. In Henan, continued price increases are mainly supported by high raw material costs and reduced supply from Sichuan and Xinxiang. However, once production facilities resume operations, supply will increase.NeedRequestWith no increase in volume, can prices continue to rise? Northeast China's Wanli Runda is about to bring 20 million tons of new capacity online. Plants are operating normally, downstream restocking is complete, and existing Northeast orders are being fulfilled. Will new incoming orders offset the increased production? How much price upside remains given high support from corn feedstock? What impact will other raw-material-based products have once they enter the market?